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Academic Journal
Business Analytics

“Noise Accumulation in High Dimensional Classification and Total Signal Index”

Great attention has been paid to Big Data in recent years. Such data hold promise for scientific discoveries but also pose challenges to analyses. One potential challenge is noise accumulation. In this paper, we explore noise accumulation in high dimensional two-group classification. First, we revisit a previous assessment of noise accumulation with principal component analyses, which yields a different threshold for discriminative ability than originally identified. Then we extend our scope to its impact on classifiers developed with three common machine learning approaches—random forest, support vector machine, and boosted classification trees. We simulate four scenarios with differing amounts of signal strength to evaluate each method. After determining noise accumulation may affect the performance of these classifiers, we assess factors that impact it. We
conduct simulations by varying sample size, signal strength, signal strength proportional to the number predictors, and signal magnitude with random forest classifiers. These simulations suggest that noise accumulation affects the discriminative ability of high-dimensional classifiers developed using common machine learning methods, which can be modified by sample size, signal strength, and signal magnitude. We developed the measure total signal index (TSI) to track the trends of total signal and noise accumulation.
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Business Analytics

“Pacing online learning: The impact of video segmentation on conceptual development”

Abstract
Many online learning environments use prerecorded video lectures as a primary mode for disseminating learning content. Despite the commonality of this lecture-based video format, it is not clear to what degree video length and the incorporation of active learning elements influence learner success. We investigated the efficacy of segmenting pre-recorded lecture videos and interspersing elements of active learning in an asynchronous online introductory biology course at Oregon State University. In our experiment, biology students were exposed to three “lecture styles”: 1) a single long-form lecture video with formative topical questions at the lecture’s conclusion, 2) a single long-form lecture video with formative topical questions interspersed throughout the lecture, and 3) a series of shorterform lecture video segments (i.e., “chunked” versions of the long-form lecture) that had formative topical questions at each video’s conclusion. We gauged student performance by assessing exam scores and learning gains on evidence-based Concept Inventory questions. Our findings indicate that all video-lecture styles allowed students to improve their knowledge of biology concepts and none were significantly better than another. These results suggest that students are able to effectively learn regardless of the online video lecture approach.
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Academic Journal
Business Analytics

“Realized Volatility Forecasting and Volatility Spillovers: Evidence from Chinese Non-Ferrous Metals Futures”

We study the prediction of realized volatility of non-ferrous metals futures traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange from March 2011 to December 2017. A dynamic model averaging model is employed to combine multiple prediction models using time-varying weights based on individual model performance. Empirical results also reveal that models incorporating volatility spillovers across metals are important for forecast combinations, and short-term spillovers have a stronger impact than long-term spillovers. This approach offers the best forecasting performance and allows users to identify the most dominant model at any given time and demonstrate when and how volatility transmission from another metal is valuable for forecasting. We also find evidence of distinct trading behaviors in emerging and developed markets.
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